Professor Jiang Predicts: US WILL LOSE Iran War

Alright, guys. We've got yet another heavy hitter guest and first time guest on the show. Professor Zhang, he is the star of the popular YouTube channel Predictive History. He uses game theory to analyze past, current, and to predict future geopolitical events. He joins us now, Professor.

Great to have you. Good to see you, sir. Thanks for inviting me. Yeah, of course. So, you know, for people who aren't familiar with your work, I wanted to show folks that back in 2024, you made three big predictions.

One, that Trump would win. Two, that he would start a war with Iran. And three, that The US would lose that war. Let's take a listen to that. In this class this semester, I'm making three big predictions, right?

First is that Trump will win in November. Second is that United States will go to war against Iran. And the third big big prediction is that United States will lose this war, which will forever change the global order. So obviously that last one is the only one who has that has not yet come to fruition is quite a stunning prediction. You know, do you stand by it?

And what have you seen so far that leads you to sort of stand firm in that conclusion? So given my analysis of how the war is progressing, I think that Iran has many more advantages over The United States. The reality is that right now, it's a war of attrition between United States and Iran, and Iranians have been preparing twenty years for this conflict. In their eschatology, in their religion, this is a war against the great Satan. They've had many practice runs.

Last June was a twelve day war when the Iranians were able to examine and analyze the strike capacities of both Israelis and Americans, and they've had a lot of time, eight months, to prepare fully for this new attack. Through their proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Shia militias have been able to really grasp the American mentality, and now they have a pretty good strategy of how to weaken and ultimately destroy the American empire. So what the Iranians are doing is, they're waging war against the entire global economy, And so they are striking the GCC countries, and not only are they striking GCC countries, American bases, they're going after the critical energy infrastructure of these bases, they bought off the trip of Hormuz, and eventually they will go after the water desalination plants, which is the lifeblood of these nations, because they don't have fresh water supply. In fact, the water desalination plants provides 60% of GCC's water supply. So if a drone, and you know these drones cost $50,000 if they wiped out a desalination plant in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and it's a city of 10,000,000 people, They'd be out of water in two weeks, in two weeks.

And right now, the Iranians have de facto closed office of Hormuz, and the GCC gets 90% of its food from the Shreve of Hormuz. So I know a lot of people are talking about the disruptions to global economy, but right now the Iranians are actually threatening the very existence of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and why this is important is that the Gulf States are really the linchpin of the American economy. So what they do is they sell petrodollars and then they recycle the petrodollars back into the American economy through the investments in the stock market. And right now we know that the entire global entire American economy is propped up by AI investments in data centers. And a lot of that comes from the Gulf States.

So if the Gulf States are no longer able to sell oil, and they're no longer able to finance AI, this AI bubble in The United States, then AI bubble will burst, and with it will burst as well as the entire American economy, which is really a financial ponte scheme. So that's a dire situation that the Americans are facing right now. Yeah. Mean, to your point, an Amazon data center was literally hit in The UAE. And now, of course, big tech companies, which were looking at The UAE as a major potential data center investment hub with cheap and abundant energy, probably going to be re rethinking that.

We also wanted to talk to you about munitions. We can put this next one up here on the screen. United States is racing to accomplish Iran mission before munitions run out. This is specifically around interceptor math. There's a famous video just from yesterday in Israel, which shows a single Iranian ballistic missile, which is being targeted by some 11 different interceptors, all of which miss.

Most of those come from The United States, not to mention all of the different bases, the GCC countries that you just talked about, and the asymmetry of the cost. It's a million dollar for a missile, tens of millions per interceptor in some of these cases. With these munitions running out, how does that change the global picture? So you're in China. Obviously, much of the stocks in Asia of The United States are likely to have to be cannibalized if this were to go on.

How is that going to affect the global picture here? Right. So my first point is that the United States military is not designed to fight a twenty first century war. Remember the military industrial complex came into being after World War II and it's designed to fight the Cold War and the Cold War was really about muscle flexing, about who was able to send people up into space, able to who first get the person on the moon, who had the more complex missile systems. And so the entire American military strategy revolves around very sophisticated technology that costs a lot of money to build and that's what the American air defense system is basically, and that's why we're seeing this asymmetry as you point out in this war, where you have these million dollar missiles trying to take out these $50,000 drones, and is that sustainable in the long term?

And so what we're seeing is really the puncturing of the aura of invincibility and inevitability that sustained American hegemony for the past twenty years, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and this is really a reordering, not just a global economy, because this signals the collapse of the petrodollar and with it the entire US dollar based reserve currency system, but also the global hegemony of The United States. We're moving towards a multipolar world. Professor, this morning Secretary of War Pete Hegseth was asked a question about potential ground troops in Iran. He refused to rule out that possibility. And he said, you know, oh, well, we're not gonna project to you what we will or will not do.

But we don't want to, you know, rule anything out. We will do what it takes. Do you think that America will end up invading Iran from the ground since it's already becoming relatively clear they won't be able to accomplish the goal of regime change or even regime collapse using just air power alone? Right, so everyone says that the worst calamity that could happen in The United States is if it were to send ground troops into Iran. At the same time, The United States are committed to regime change in Iran.

We've never had a precedent in history where you were able to regime change from the air alone, you need ground troops, and so unfortunately what's gonna happen over the next few months is that pressure will build on America to send ground troops, especially from the GCC countries and from Israel, which are being piloted right now by the Iranians. So remember that if the GCC countries, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Buran, if they go, then the petrodollar goes goes with them. So the Americans need to protect these countries, and these countries are gonna demand that either the Americans bribe the Iranians to cease, and this this is like $520 in indemnity, okay? Mhmm. Or send ground troops to wipe out the Iranian threat once and for all, and I know that there's no political will for ground troops to be used against Iran among the American people, But remember that 78% of American people was against initial strikes against Iran in the first place.

Right. And one of the things that really comes into question, I think, with all of this, sir, when we're looking at the geopolitical picture and the sacrificing in much of this, from The United States on behalf of Israel is kind of a question as to who and what wanted this. We were actually curious for your view on a disputed report here from The Washington Post. We can put it up here on the screen, f three. A push from the Saudis.

Israel helped move Trump to attack Iran. Now this has been internally disputed by Saudi Arabia saying that they did not push the Trump administration to attack Iran. However, this is clearly an authorized leak from our own government trying to at least lay some of the blame on behalf of the GCC. What do you make of this analysis and of of this narrative that Saudi Arabia was also trying to be behind this push to bomb Iran? So I've always argued that both Saudi Arabia and Israel are heavily invested in regime change in Iran.

Yeah. In fact, Saudi Arabia sees Iran as much more of an existential crisis than Israel, because remember Israel still has nuclear weapons, and Israel is a very diverse, very sophisticated economy, whereas Saudi Arabia is completely reliant on oil, and it's always had problems with Iran because Iran is a theocracy opposed to the Saudi monarchy, Iran funds and equips the Houthis, which have been antagonistic towards Saudi Arabia for the longest time, and right now the Saudi economy is suffering. It's been trying to pivot towards more of a tourist economy, that's why they brought in Renato, that's why they're switching to e gaming, that's why they're being some building something called Align Neo, and all these things are not working out. So they need to be able to control the oil resources of the entire Middle East if they are to survive and thrive as a nation. So I do believe that this reporting is credible, even though it does make Saudi Arabia look bad.

But remember, Saudi Arabia says that they wanted peace, but they are helping the Israelis and Americans attack Iran right now because they are allowing the Israelis and Americans to use Saudi airspace. So help us understand because it still feels to me like there are some pieces that don't totally add up. You had in advance of this war on Iran, you had top military bras up to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff saying, this is a really bad idea. You know, we are not ready for this. You know, all the math on the interceptors that's been talked about for months at this point.

And yet Trump still decided to go ahead. What is the calculus that he was making here that led him to take what, you know, already appears to be catastrophic actions? Right, okay. So this is the key question, why do they do this? I think there are three possibilities, okay?

And I think all three possibilities are valid. The first is that of hubris. If you look at history, this is how empires behave. So the Mindoro kidnapping was quick, successful, and it was adrenaline rush for Trump, and that made him overconfident in the capacity of the American military. Okay?

So hubris is a factor, and we see this throughout history. Why did Hitler invade Stalin? Because he conquered Europe really easily and he thought he was invincible, right? And that led to the destruction of the German army in the Soviet Union, so hubris is a factor. Then you have to look at internal political calculus, where even though America does not benefit from this war against Iran, Trump himself personally benefits, why?

Because the Saudis and the Israelis are bribing him to attack Iran. Remember that the Saudis invested $2,000,000,000 in the private equity fund of Jared Kushner, who is the son-in-law of Donald Trump, and the Israelis, through Miriam Adelson, have been financing Trump's local career, right? So Mayor Adelson a few months back said that she will put up $2,050,000,000 dollars if Trump were to run a third term. So Trump is getting a lot of financial and political support from the Saudis and Israelis. Also remember that if this war goes sideways and Trump is forced to use ground troops, he will probably get approval from Congress and this will give him emergency war powers, which will allow him to influence the midterms.

So Trump is thinking about a third term, and I think at the black box, you probably won't get it, but if there's a war going on and you can delay elections and you have emergency war powers and people rally around the flag, then he probably will get a third term. And the last factor that is very important is the eschatological factor where if you look at the Epstein files, it's clear that we are run by sacred societies. It's clear that the world is run by these individuals who have a lot of power. We don't know who they are, but they control the military. They control the national security operators, and these people, there are different names for these people.

You can you can call them Illuminati, and Illuminati are composed of three major groups. Okay? You have the Jesuits who control the Vatican, you have the Septuagint Frankus who which control the modern state of Israel today, and you have the Freemasons which control the national security apparatus of The United States, and they believe that Israel, this one Middle East, is key to the end times in creating heaven on earth. So it's almost like a script that they're following even though it doesn't make any duplicates sense. Okay?

So I would say that these three are the best reasons why this is happening. Wow. Well, sir, I hope you come back. This was very informative, I think, for both of us. We deeply appreciate your time.

Thank you. Thank you. Hey. If you like that video, hit the like button or leave a comment below. It really helps get the show to more people.

And if you'd like to get the full show ad free and in your inbox every morning, you can sign up at breakingpoints.com. That's right. Get the full show. Help support the future of independent media at breakingpoints.com.